Kerry: The Anti-Bush

The Hill

August 31, 2004

During the run-up to the Democratic convention, there was a lot of speculation about the "bounce" John Kerry might reasonably expect. Democrats hoped and Republicans feared that he might come out of Boston with a "bounce" of something like 10 points in the polls, though both sides tried to spin public and press expectations to their benefit.

It didn't happen. Kerry's "bounce" was virtually imperceptible in most polls in spite of the fact that most observers believed the Democrats staged a pretty successful convention. Ironically, even though many voters who watched the convention came away with a somewhat higher opinion of the Democratic candidate, this was not reflected in the poll numbers when they were asked to choose.

Kerry's inability to alter the outlines of the race was a result not of his failure to put on a good show in Boston, but of the realities of today's political world. The problem is that there aren't all that many persuadable voters out there this year. An unprecedented number of voters have already decided how they're going to vote.

Now it's President Bush's turn. He and Kerry remain virtually deadlocked in the national polls. The odds are that Bush and his running mate will leave New York later this week still searching for an opportunity to break loose and realizing that this one, like the contest four years ago, is going to go down to the wire.

This does not mean, however, that what happens here during the next few days won't be important. Voters will be paying attention just as they did when Kerry, John Edwards and their friends took the stage in Boston. This week will give the president and his managers their last real chance to make their case before an interested audience in a way they can control. After New York, it will be the debates and external events in the saddle and they are going to have to do the best they can at riding and steering things to their own advantage.

Bush has to do more this week in New York than Kerry did in Boston. If you look back to the show the Democrats put on, it becomes clear that they made only half their case. Even though they tried to modulate their fiercest attack dogs, the Democrats' message to the public was simple enough: if you don't like George Bush or are upset about the state of the economy in your neighborhood or you don't agree with either the war on terrorism or the way Bush is conducting it, you can fire the man because John Kerry represents a non-threatening and competent alternative.

In other words, they managed, perhaps inadvertently, to define Kerry simply as the non-Bush or anti-Bush candidate. That wasn't enough to change the dynamic of the race. Voters know he's not Bush and regardless of their take on his competence, don't know where or how he would lead them in these troubling times.

The president's problem isn't all that different. People think they already know him, of course, and they either like him or would like to get rid of him. They also know or think they know how well he's performed in the job he holds. What they don't know is what he will do if they give him another term, and that's the question he has to answer this week.

What the president and his managers have to keep in mind is that for all their good points, democratic electorates are not into gratitude. Voters are much less interested in what their leaders did for them yesterday than in what they expect them to do tomorrow. The candidate who fails to appreciate this can end up in real trouble.

As the convention opened yesterday in New York's Madison Square Garden, speaker after speaker took to the podium to laud Bush for all that he's done since taking office as the first American president of the new millennium. Yesterday's speakers and those making their way to the podium today are bragging about his fight to cut taxes, his attempt to begin the reform of Medicare and education and his resolute leadership in the war against international terrorism.

This is all fine, but if it's all that comes out of this week's show, it will represent a missed opportunity. Bush has a right to be proud of much of what he's accomplished, but when he leaves this city he better hope that the people who see him speak on Thursday will come away knowing what he'll do if he's re-elected. If they do, he will have had a more successful convention than his opponent.

David Keene is the chairman of the American Conservative Union and a managing associate with the Carmen Group, a Washington, D.C.-based governmental-affairs firm.