Kerry is poised to tell us something we already know
June 22, 2004

Decision time is fast approaching. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry is going to have to bite the bullet and actually pick a running mate.

Kerry's John McCain ploy has been interesting and generated a lot of publicity, but it's over. The Arizona Republican has finally made it clear that he isn't about to join Kerry in his crusade to send George W. Bush back to Texas, and the very idea that a man as cautious by nature as John Kerry would have taken the risks involved in picking him is absurd.

What the Massachusetts Democrat and his managers are about to discover, however, is that toying with the idea of a "unity ticket" is going to come back and bite them.

Whomever he ultimately selects is likely to be seen by the media as wanting in comparison to what might have been. Kerry and his new political partner will, in fact, have to put up with a week of distracting speculation on why the effort to convince someone as exciting as McCain to join his ticket failed and how his new choice won't lend the excitement to the campaign that a Kerry-McCain "fusion" ticket would have generated.

So, whom will the man choose? There are many possibilities, of course, and more than a few are quietly lobbying for the job while publicly disclaiming any interest in it whatever. But recent news reports indicate that the Kerry campaign is only doing extensive background checks on two possibilities: North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri. Both men would be on any list of possible candidates, but one wonders if potential candidates such as New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson have already been eliminated.

If they have and if the choice is between the two reportedly being vetted, Edwards had better start looking for another job for the simple reason that he doesn't bring much to a Kerry ticket. It is true that he is a more inspirational speaker than Kerry and he demonstrated during the primaries that he can handle himself well enough, but he can't deliver his own state or much else and his selection would do little to unite Democrats who are currently held together by little other than visceral hatred of Bush behind a nominee who has thus far been far from impressive.

Bob Shrum, the able veteran who seems most days to be calling the shots for Kerry, tries to run all his candidates as populists, and Edwards is a former client who talks the populist talk, so he might conceivably be attracted to Edwards. But it is difficult to imagine any of it rubbing off on Kerry, who comes across as perhaps the least populist of any recent Democratic nominee.

That leaves Gephardt, who has also demonstrated that he can handle the pressure of a national campaign and might make the difference in Missouri. He wouldn't be an inspired choice by any means, but there aren't many real alternatives and he would at least guarantee that organized labor would go the extra mile for Kerry. If Edwards warms the cockles of Shrum's heart, Gephardt does the same for the men and women of the AFL-CIO.

But will this matter? It will tell us something about Kerry, of course, but it is something we already know. He is risk-averse and won't swing for the fences if he thinks a bunt will get him what he wants. Beyond that, it's not likely to make much difference, since vice-presidential candidates rarely make much difference by November. Voters vote for the presidential candidate, not for his running mate.

Indeed, the last vice-presidential candidate who really made a difference was Lyndon Johnson, back in 1960. He delivered Texas for John Kennedy, but he did it in a way that isn't likely to be repeated.

No recent running mate has had much impact. Not Bob Dole, Hubert Humphrey, Geraldine Ferraro, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Dan Quayle, George H.W. Bush or Dick Cheney. Some were less embarrassing than others and a few helped the man who chose them bandage a few intra-party wounds, but none of them elected or defeated a president.

Still, Kerry has to pick someone and Gephardt would be no worse than some who've run in the past -- and maybe even better than a few.

Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, is a managing associate with Carmen Group, a D.C.-based governmental-affairs firm (www.carmengrouplobbying.com).