David A. Keene

Kerry hasn't yet passed test of how to be presidential
March 9, 2004

Now that John Kerry has wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination, he will begin to be compared by the media and voters not to Howard Dean and the rest of the folks who shared the stage with him in Iowa, New Hampshire and the other primary states but to an incumbent president with formidable political skills.

So far, he has proved something we already knew: In politics, luck trumps just about everything. After Kerry frittered away his early front-runner status, he still backed into the lead in Iowa while avoiding front-runner scrutiny. His win there made it virtually impossible for anyone to stop him. In a sense, in fact, the way he won demonstrates just how silly the process has become. By front-loading it more and more every election cycle, the parties have made it almost impossible to beat anyone who captures the first couple of contests.

The momentum that George Bush's father believed would allow him to build on his win over Ronald Reagan in Iowa back in 1980 dissipated in the two weeks between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Reagan, of course, went on to win. Had this year's schedule, with a mere one-week separation, been in place in 1980, Bush's "Big Mo" would have been enough to allow him to roll over Reagan.

In those days, though, voters could regroup and rethink the choices before them. The momentum a candidate developed was obviously helpful, but it didn't guarantee the nomination absent a world-class screw up. Today it does, and that worked to Kerry's advantage.

Events allowed Kerry to come through with the nomination essentially free of the scars that a feisty opponent might have inflicted on him under other circumstances. It seems that all the epithets were used up on poor old Dean; Kerry seemed civilized and even moderate by comparison.

In some ways, however, Kerry is just the sort of candidate Republicans like to run against. He and those around him are saying, rather predictably, that it is unfair to label him, but it is a fact that, based on his record, the man is a thorough-going Northeastern liberal.

He will appeal to his party's base for the simple reason that core Democrats hate George W. Bush. But he will have a much tougher time reaching out beyond his regional and ideological base. His act isn't likely to win many converts in the South, for example, and his decision to fly back to Washington to slap gun owners last week will be remembered in what have come to be known as the "red" states more than his participation in that pheasant hunt in Iowa a few months ago.

Still, in an evenly divided electorate, Kerry will run the president a good race and could, if Bush's forces make one too many mistakes, actually win in November. The odds are against it, but it is at least possible.

To do it, Kerry is going to have to do more than trash the administration's foreign and domestic policies. He's going to have to convince voters beyond his base that his would be a steadier hand at the wheel as we maneuver our way through the "land mines" that we confront in the new, exciting and threatening world of the 21st century.

A successful presidential candidate has to somehow manage to get voters to see him as president and get comfortable with the idea of him in the Oval Office. Kerry hasn't done that yet, and he's now up against a man who has gotten fairly high marks in a difficult job.

The Massachusetts senator has to convince people he can do better. If the economy continues to improve and if voters find reason to worry about Kerry's record on foreign policy and defense during his 19 Senate years, he'll face a tough sell.

As president, Bush has made more tough decisions than came to the desks of many of his predecessors. He's made a few mistakes, but most Americans credit him with steadiness, common sense and even courage. He's gotten all the experience his critics claimed he lacked when he ran four years ago and then some, and the combination makes him far more formidable an incumbent than either the poll numbers or his harshest critics acknowledge.

It's going to be an interesting year.