David A. Keene

We criticize because we care
February 10, 2004

Many conservatives are concerned about skyrocketing federal spending, growing deficits and the seeming inability or unwillingness of the Bush administration and its allies in Congress to do much about either. I share those concerns.

Moreover, like most conservatives, I opposed the recent expansion of the Medicare program and questioned a number of other administration and congressional initiatives on ideological and political grounds. I shall continue to do so because I am convinced, like Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, who gave the keynote address at this year's Conservative Political Action Conference, that the "ship of governance" has wandered off course and that those who care are obligated to do all we can to get the ship's "captain" to make necessary corrections lest she run aground.

The president's critics and those in the media who seem to spend an inordinate amount of their time looking for and analyzing "rifts" within the Republican/conservative governing coalition are delighted to suggest that any differences we might have with a president they dislike will automatically weaken him in November. The constant question a conservative hears from these folks upon voicing a disagreement with the administration on anything is, "Does this mean you won't be supporting Bush this fall?" Dream on, fellows.

The conservatives I talk to are motivated, like Pence, not to fire the captain but by a desire to get him to make a course correction for all our sakes. They like George W. Bush, believe that over all he's done a good job and are convinced that he is well-intentioned. They are certainly not prepared to suggest that the nation would be better off with the likes of a John Kerry in the White House, and most of them will be out working to re-elect Bush in November.

They know, however, that given the topography of presidential politics these days, Bush is going to need the enthusiastic support of his base if he wants to win. They realize -- even if his White House political advisers don't -- that a dispirited conservative in Peoria who stays home or doesn't drag his worthless but Republican brother-in-law to the polls in November could make the difference between a second term and forced retirement.

Richard Nixon observed famously several decades ago that "if your base isn't p--ed off, you're doing something wrong." But Nixon was running in a different time. In those days, perhaps 30 percent of the electorate could be characterized as "available" and in the middle. A candidate could sacrifice a few votes from his base knowing that he might pick up more from the uncommitted, less partisan center. That's why the common wisdom of that time was that a candidate should, once procuring his party's nomination, run headlong to the center, where persuadable voters were to be found.

But that was then. Today, it is estimated that the available center has shrunk to something like 8 or 10 percent of the total electorate. This means, from a practical political standpoint, that the attractive tradeoff that could be made in the '60s has vanished. If your base is upset and your natural supporters stay home, you may find there aren't enough offsetting votes to make up for them.

Parties, candidates and managers are adjusting to this changed world by devoting more resources to turning out their base voters and developing messages that help in that effort. The problem with the president's political advisers is that they seem to be playing by the old rules in advancing policies designed to comfort voters who might otherwise be hostile to the president while relying on their base supporters to turn out simply because they won't like the alternative.

Their problem is that they aren't getting much for all that. Anti-Bush voters really don't like the man, and history shows that you have to do more than simply count on your own voters' hostility to the opposition to get them to drag their brothers-in-law to the polls.

That, it will be recalled, was Newt Gingrich's brilliant strategy in 1998, when he assured all who would listen that House Republicans didn't have to do much to earn the support of GOP voters because Republicans that year would turn out simply because they hated Bill Clinton. They didn't.

It was a strategy that made Gingrich what he is today. And it certainly shouldn't be repeated.